Global Mobile Network Spending Peaks at $92B Before Dropping 29% by 2031 — What SP Engineers Must Do Now

Global mobile network infrastructure spending will peak at approximately $92 billion in 2026–2027 before declining 29% to $65 billion by 2031, according to ABI Research’s Indoor, Outdoor, and IoT Network Infrastructure report published March 26, 2026. The drop signals the end of the 5G buildout cycle and the beginning of a transitional period where operators must deliver more capacity with dramatically less capital — a shift that directly reshapes the career trajectory of every service provider network engineer.

Key Takeaway: The $27 billion spending contraction between 2027 and 2031 will eliminate generalist SP roles while creating premium demand for engineers who combine MPLS/Segment Routing depth with cloud-native orchestration and automation — exactly the skill profile validated by CCIE Service Provider certification.

How Much Will Mobile Network Spending Drop by 2031?

Global outdoor mobile network infrastructure spending is projected to decline from $92 billion at its 2026–2027 peak to $65 billion by 2031 — a $27 billion annual reduction representing a 29% drop, according to ABI Research (March 2026). This contraction follows years of aggressive 5G deployment that pushed over 350 5G networks live globally, with 60% global 5G population coverage reached by end of 2025. The steepest annual declines will occur in 2029–2031 as operators in mature markets exhaust their 5G network densification roadmaps and begin redirecting limited capital toward early 6G research.

The spending trajectory breaks into three distinct phases that SP engineers need to understand:

According to Matthias Foo, Principal Analyst at ABI Research, “5G deployments have seen significant growth over the years, with industry estimates placing the current number of launched 5G networks at over 350 globally.” India alone installed more than 500,000 5G Base Transceiver Stations within three years, demonstrating the scale of recent capital deployment.

For CCIE SP candidates, this timeline matters because the transition and contraction phases reward fundamentally different skill sets than the buildout phase. During peak spending, operators hire for deployment velocity. During contraction, they hire for efficiency — automation, orchestration, and the ability to extract maximum value from existing infrastructure.

What Do Ericsson and Nokia 2025 Earnings Tell Us About the RAN Market?

Ericsson and Nokia’s 2025 full-year results confirm that the global Radio Access Network equipment market has already plateaued. Ericsson exited 2025 with approximately $22 billion in revenue, 2% organic growth, a 17% operating margin, and $5.8 billion in net cash, according to financial analysis by Sebastian Barros. Nokia closed the year with roughly $26 billion in revenue and a 9% reported operating margin (17% on a comparable basis), with $3.7 billion in net cash. ZTE reported a 5.9% year-over-year decline in its Carriers’ Networks segment in H1 2025.

Ericsson’s gross margin stabilized at 48.1%, a step change from the mid-40s profile of the previous cycle, indicating that cost discipline — not revenue growth — drove profitability. Free cash flow before M&A reached $2.5 billion, equal to 11% of revenue. Ericsson expects flat RAN growth continuing through 2026, according to the ABI Research press release.

Nokia’s Network Infrastructure division showed relative strength compared to its Mobile Networks business, suggesting that operators are shifting budget allocation from new RAN deployments toward IP/optical transport and automation platforms. BT’s CTO publicly stated they are “definitely over the capex hump of investment in 5G,” according to Light Reading reporting on vendor replacement of Huawei equipment.

For network engineers, the vendor financial picture translates directly to job market dynamics. When Ericsson and Nokia report flat growth but maintain or improve margins, it means fewer deployment projects but higher value per project — the work that remains requires senior expertise in areas like Segment Routing, network slicing, and cloud-native core integration.

Where Will the Remaining $65 Billion Go?

The composition of the $65 billion that operators will spend in 2031 looks fundamentally different from the $92 billion they spend in 2026. ABI Research forecasts Open RAN adoption growing at a 26.5% CAGR through 2031, capturing approximately 23% of the total installed RAN base. Despite high-profile announcements, the market will remain largely dominated by incumbent suppliers (Ericsson, Nokia, Samsung), but the Open RAN slice represents the fastest-growing budget category.

Open RAN: 23% of the Installed Base by 2031

North America leads Open RAN deployment. According to Mordor Intelligence, AT&T’s $14 billion open-interface framework with Ericsson and Verizon’s deployment of over 130,000 O-RAN-ready radios anchor the region’s adoption. Federal innovation grants totaling $1.5 billion further accelerate momentum. Dell’Oro Group recently revised its long-term Open RAN forecast upward, noting that “Open Fronthaul is increasingly being specified as a baseline capability for new vendor selection processes.”

Network APIs and Programmability

According to Ericsson and Gartner analysis (March 2026), network APIs represent a new revenue category where operators expose QoS, location, and identity services to developers through standards like CAMARA. SoftBank’s production deployment of AI-driven routing with CAMARA QoD API and SRv6 MUP validates this at carrier scale. This programmability layer depends on engineers who understand both the underlying transport (MPLS, SRv6) and the API exposure stack — a combination the CCIE Service Provider blueprint directly validates.

AI-Driven Operations (AIOps)

Operators will redirect savings from reduced capex into AIOps platforms that predict faults, optimize energy consumption, and automate remediation. Nokia’s AnyRAN platform and Cisco’s AI for Service Providers solution exemplify this shift. The Business 2.0 Channel analysis from March 2026 identifies AI-driven operations as a core priority across Ericsson and Gartner forecasts, with operators targeting 20–30% OpEx reduction through closed-loop automation.

How Does the 5G Population Coverage Map Affect SP Hiring?

Global 5G population coverage reached 60% by end of 2025, according to ABI Research, driven primarily by rapid deployments in India, China, the United States, and Saudi Arabia. However, significant greenfield 5G buildout continues in markets like Malaysia, Argentina, Peru, and Vietnam through 2026–2027, creating near-term demand for deployment engineers even as mature markets contract.

The geographic divergence creates a two-tier labor market for SP engineers:

Tier 1 — Mature Markets (US, China, EU, Saudi Arabia, South Korea):

• 5G deployment substantially complete
• Hiring focuses on optimization: network slicing design, SRv6 traffic engineering, AIOps integration
• CCIE SP holders command $135K–$175K base according to industry salary data
• Operators consolidating vendor relationships — fewer but larger contracts requiring deeper expertise

Tier 2 — Growth Markets (India, Southeast Asia, Latin America):

• Active 5G buildout through 2027
• Hiring for deployment velocity: site acceptance, RF optimization, core integration
• India’s 500,000+ BTS installations created massive short-term demand now tapering
• Opportunity for remote architecture consulting from US-based engineers

For US-based CCIE SP candidates, the mature market dynamics are most relevant. The question is not whether CCIE SP is a dead track — fewer candidates pursuing the certification while automation demand increases actually improves ROI for those who hold it.

What Skills Bridge the Gap Between 5G Contraction and 6G?

The 2028–2031 transition period requires SP engineers to evolve from infrastructure builders into infrastructure optimizers. According to the Ericsson and Gartner analysis (March 2026), the technology stack is converging around five pillars: 5G Standalone scaling, cloud-native cores, Open RAN, edge computing, and AI-driven operations. Each pillar maps to specific technical skills:

Cloud-Native Core Orchestration

5G Standalone (SA) cores run on Kubernetes with Helm chart deployments. Engineers who can design, troubleshoot, and optimize cloud-native network functions (CNFs) — including AMF, SMF, UPF — on platforms like Red Hat OpenShift or VMware Tanzu will fill the highest-value roles. This requires adding container networking (Multus, SR-IOV) and service mesh (Istio) to your existing IOS-XR and MPLS foundation.

Network Slicing Design

Network slicing enables operators to monetize a single physical network across multiple service tiers — enhanced mobile broadband, ultra-reliable low-latency, and massive IoT. Each slice requires end-to-end QoS policy design across RAN, transport, and core. Engineers who can design S-NSSAI-based slice selection, map SRv6 network programming to slice SLAs, and validate slice isolation through testing command premium compensation.

Automation at Scale

With 29% less capex, operators cannot afford manual configuration at any layer. According to NANOG and EMA data, only 18% of network automation initiatives fully succeed. The engineers who close that gap — using Python, Ansible, NETCONF/RESTCONF, and platforms like Cisco NSO — become the force multiplier that lets operators maintain service quality on shrinking budgets.

Segment Routing and SRv6

The transport underlay is converging on SRv6 with micro-SID (uSID) encoding. This is not future speculation — SoftBank runs production SRv6 MUP today, and every major vendor supports it on their latest silicon. CCIE SP lab scenarios already test SR-TE policy design, making current certification holders well-positioned for the transition.

What Does the 6G Timeline Look Like for Career Planning?

Commercial 6G deployments are expected to begin around 2030–2032, with standardization work under 3GPP Release 21 and beyond. ABI Research positions 2028–2031 as the 6G preparation phase, where operators begin redirecting capex from mature 5G infrastructure toward next-generation research, spectrum studies, and early testbed deployments.

For career planning, the 6G timeline means:

1. 2026–2027 (now): Last window to leverage 5G deployment experience. Complete CCIE SP while lab environments still reflect current production topologies.
2. 2028–2029: Transition skills toward AI-native networking, sub-THz propagation modeling, and integrated sensing-communication. Build automation expertise that transfers across generations.
3. 2030–2032: Early 6G deployments begin. Engineers with production 5G SA experience plus 6G-relevant skills (digital twins, AI/ML-driven optimization, programmable RAN) fill architecture roles.

The key insight: technology transitions in telecom do not eliminate expertise — they compound it. Engineers who built MPLS L3VPN networks in the 2000s carried that understanding into Segment Routing. Engineers who master 5G SA core design and network slicing will carry that into 6G. The CCIE SP certification validates the foundational protocols (BGP, IS-IS, SR-TE, QoS) that persist across every generation.

How Should SP Engineers Position Themselves During the Downturn?

The $27 billion annual spending reduction between 2027 and 2031 will consolidate the SP engineering workforce. Operators will pay more for fewer engineers who can deliver automation-driven efficiency. According to industry compensation data, CCIE SP holders earn $135K–$175K base salary, with total compensation exceeding $200K at Tier 1 operators and hyperscaler infrastructure teams.

The action plan for the next 18 months:

1. Validate foundational depth. If you hold CCNP SP, target CCIE SP while the certification still directly maps to production 5G SA topologies. Fewer candidates = higher differentiation.
2. Add automation. Pair CCIE SP with Python/Ansible proficiency. Build a home lab with EVE-NG or CML running IOS-XR and automate L3VPN provisioning.
3. Learn cloud-native networking. Kubernetes CNI plugins, service mesh, and container networking are no longer optional for SP engineers designing 5G core infrastructure.
4. Target hybrid roles. The highest-paying positions in 2028–2031 will combine SP transport expertise with cloud architecture skills. Operators need engineers who can design SRv6 underlay for Kubernetes-hosted CNFs.
5. Watch Open RAN. At 23% of the installed base by 2031, O-RAN integration will become a standard job requirement for RAN-adjacent SP roles.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much will global mobile network spending decline by 2031?

According to ABI Research (March 2026), global outdoor mobile network infrastructure spending will drop from a peak of approximately $92 billion in 2026–2027 to $65 billion by 2031 — a 29% decline. The reduction follows the conclusion of major 5G deployment cycles and the beginning of 6G preparation investment.

Is CCIE Service Provider still worth pursuing during a telecom capex downturn?

Yes. The contraction rewards depth, not breadth. Fewer CCIE SP candidates plus increasing demand for automation, network slicing, and cloud-native orchestration means certified engineers command premium salaries. According to salary data, CCIE SP holders earn $135K–$175K base with total compensation exceeding $200K at major operators.

What is the Open RAN market share forecast for 2031?

ABI Research forecasts Open RAN adoption will grow at a 26.5% CAGR through 2031, reaching approximately 23% of the total installed RAN base. AT&T’s $14 billion open-interface framework and Verizon’s 130,000+ O-RAN-ready radios anchor North American deployment, supported by $1.5 billion in federal innovation grants.

Which vendors dominate the RAN market despite the spending decline?

Ericsson, Nokia, and Huawei continue to dominate. Ericsson posted $22 billion revenue with 17% operating margins in 2025. Nokia reported $26 billion revenue. Samsung is gaining share through its partnership with AMD on vRAN and AI-RAN, with the Open RAN market projected to reach $45 billion by 2033. Despite Open RAN growth, incumbent suppliers retain approximately 77% of the installed base through 2031.

When will 6G investment meaningfully ramp up?

The 2028–2031 period is the 6G preparation phase, according to ABI Research. Operators will redirect a portion of declining 5G capex toward 6G spectrum studies, standardization contributions (3GPP Release 21+), and early testbed deployments. Commercial 6G launches are expected around 2030–2032.

Ready to future-proof your SP career before the spending contraction hits? Contact us on Telegram @firstpasslab for a free CCIE Service Provider assessment.